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Jim Masters v Rob Heasman (Thu 27 Apr 2017)

Match won by Jim Masters. Result: 11-9,11-1,9-11,11-7.

Starting level for Jim Masters: 2,974, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Rob Heasman: 2,873, level confidence: 60%.
Jim Masters to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Rob Heasman.

Jim Masters won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jim Masters played 33% better than Rob Heasman in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jim Masters actually played at a level of 3,374 and Rob Heasman at a level of 2,532. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jim Masters changes to +10.5% and Rob Heasman changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jim Masters becomes +4.5% and for Rob Heasman becomes -5.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Berkshire Summer League 2017' so the adjustment for Jim Masters is +2.9% and for Rob Heasman is -3.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jim Masters: 87%, Rob Heasman: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jim Masters: 77%, Rob Heasman: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jim Masters: 3,056, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Rob Heasman: 2,772, level confidence: 68%.