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Rob Heasman v Jak Anthony (Thu 11 May 2017)

Match won by Rob Heasman. Result: 11-6,11-3,8-11,11-3.

Starting level for Rob Heasman: 2,780, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jak Anthony: 3,801, level confidence: 59%.
Jak Anthony to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Rob Heasman.

Rob Heasman won 75% of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 78% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Heasman played 43% better than Jak Anthony in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Heasman actually played at a level of 3,881 and Jak Anthony at a level of 2,722. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 40% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 33% and 33% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Heasman changes to +25% and Jak Anthony changes to -33%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Heasman becomes +9% and for Jak Anthony becomes -10.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Berkshire Summer League 2017' so the adjustment for Rob Heasman is +5.9% and for Jak Anthony is -6.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Heasman: 89%, Jak Anthony: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Heasman: 64%, Jak Anthony: 55%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rob Heasman: 2,938, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Jak Anthony: 3,561, level confidence: 55%.