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Malcolm North v Mike McElhatton (Wed 17 May 2017)

Match won by Malcolm North. Result: 15-11,15-11,15-13.

Starting level for Malcolm North: 1,669, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Mike McElhatton: 2,006, level confidence: 67%.
Mike McElhatton to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Malcolm North.

Malcolm North won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Malcolm North played 37% better than Mike McElhatton in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Malcolm North actually played at a level of 2,144 and Mike McElhatton at a level of 1,562. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Malcolm North changes to +25% and Mike McElhatton changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Malcolm North becomes +11% and for Mike McElhatton becomes -10.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2017' so the adjustment for Malcolm North is +7.1% and for Mike McElhatton is -6.6%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mike McElhatton is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Malcolm North: 82%, Mike McElhatton: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Malcolm North: 64%, Mike McElhatton: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Malcolm North: 1,785, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Mike McElhatton: 1,908, level confidence: 64%.