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Paul Gregory v Mike McElhatton (Tue 23 May 2017)

Match won by Mike McElhatton. Result: 9-15,14-16,2-15.

Starting level for Paul Gregory: 1,310, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Mike McElhatton: 1,898, level confidence: 62%.
Mike McElhatton to win as he is currently playing 45% better than Paul Gregory.

Mike McElhatton won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 84% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike McElhatton played 84% better than Paul Gregory in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike McElhatton actually played at a level of 2,139 and Paul Gregory at a level of 1,162. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.4% and 10.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike McElhatton changes to +10.4% and Paul Gregory changes to -10.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike McElhatton becomes +5.2% and for Paul Gregory becomes -5.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2017' so the adjustment for Mike McElhatton is +3.4% and for Paul Gregory is -3.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike McElhatton: 79%, Paul Gregory: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike McElhatton: 70%, Paul Gregory: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Gregory: 1,261, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Mike McElhatton: 1,959, level confidence: 70%.