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Chris Bartlett v Mark Caldwell (Wed 24 May 2017)

Match won by Mark Caldwell. Result: 15-11,11-15,1-15,8-15.

Starting level for Chris Bartlett: 2,262, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mark Caldwell: 2,935, level confidence: 64%.
Mark Caldwell to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Chris Bartlett.

Mark Caldwell won 75% of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 60% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Caldwell played 37% better than Chris Bartlett in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Caldwell actually played at a level of 3,011 and Chris Bartlett at a level of 2,205. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.6% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.3% and 2.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Caldwell changes to +2.3% and Chris Bartlett changes to -1.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Caldwell becomes +1.5% and for Chris Bartlett becomes -1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2017' so the adjustment for Mark Caldwell is +1% and for Chris Bartlett is -0.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Caldwell: 80%, Chris Bartlett: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Caldwell: 78%, Chris Bartlett: 87%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Bartlett: 2,239, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Mark Caldwell: 2,960, level confidence: 78%.