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Vincent Paliczka v Rob Heasman (Thu 25 May 2017)

Match won by Rob Heasman. Result: 7-11,6-11,9-11.

Starting level for Vincent Paliczka: 1,998, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Rob Heasman: 2,937, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Rob Heasman to win as he is currently playing 47% better than Vincent Paliczka.

Rob Heasman won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Heasman played 52% better than Vincent Paliczka in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Heasman actually played at a level of 2,983 and Vincent Paliczka at a level of 1,967. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.6% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.3% and 1.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Heasman changes to +1% and Vincent Paliczka changes to -1.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Heasman becomes +0.7% and for Vincent Paliczka becomes -1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Berkshire Summer League 2017' so the adjustment for Rob Heasman is +0.5% and for Vincent Paliczka is -0.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Heasman: 93%, Vincent Paliczka: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Heasman: 92%, Vincent Paliczka: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Vincent Paliczka: 1,982, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Rob Heasman: 2,946, level confidence: 92%.