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Chris Bartlett v Shakil Mir (Wed 07 Jun 2017)

Match won by Shakil Mir. Result: 11-15,15-7,12-15,15-5,9-15.

Starting level for Chris Bartlett: 2,235, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Shakil Mir: 1,952, level confidence: 62%.
Chris Bartlett to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Shakil Mir.

Shakil Mir won 60% of the games and 48% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Shakil Mir played 5% better than Chris Bartlett in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Shakil Mir actually played at a level of 2,145 and Chris Bartlett at a level of 2,034. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Shakil Mir changes to +9.2% and Chris Bartlett changes to -6.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Shakil Mir becomes +4.7% and for Chris Bartlett becomes -3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2017' so the adjustment for Shakil Mir is +3% and for Chris Bartlett is -2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Shakil Mir: 79%, Chris Bartlett: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Shakil Mir: 72%, Chris Bartlett: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Bartlett: 2,181, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Shakil Mir: 2,008, level confidence: 72%.