Rob Heasman v David Sobo (Thu 08 Jun 2017)
Match won by David Sobo. Result: 11-5,9-11,6-11,5-11.
Starting level for
Rob Heasman:
3,032, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
David Sobo:
3,656, level confidence: 58%.
David Sobo to win as he is currently playing
21% better than Rob Heasman.
David Sobo won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Sobo played
24% better than Rob Heasman in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Sobo actually played at a level of
3,710 and Rob Heasman at a level of
2,987. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.5% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Sobo changes to +1.4% and Rob Heasman changes to -1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Sobo becomes +0.9% and for Rob Heasman becomes -0.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Berkshire Summer League 2017' so the adjustment for David Sobo is +0.6% and for Rob Heasman is -0.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Sobo: 76%, Rob Heasman: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Sobo: 75%, Rob Heasman: 87%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Rob Heasman:
3,014, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for David Sobo:
3,671, level confidence: 75%.