Spencer Harris v Tim Luetchford (Tue 13 Jun 2017)
Match won by Tim Luetchford. Result: 15-13,8-15,15-13,12-15,9-15.
Starting level for
Spencer Harris:
2,003, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for
Tim Luetchford:
1,475, level confidence: 64%.
Spencer Harris to win as he is currently playing
36% better than Tim Luetchford.
Tim Luetchford won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Luetchford played
13% better than Spencer Harris in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tim Luetchford actually played at a level of
1,824 and Spencer Harris at a level of
1,620. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Luetchford changes to +20% and Spencer Harris changes to -20%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Luetchford becomes +9.5% and for Spencer Harris becomes -8.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2017' so the adjustment for Tim Luetchford is +6.2% and for Spencer Harris is -5.3%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Luetchford: 80%, Spencer Harris: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Luetchford: 65%, Spencer Harris: 65%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Spencer Harris:
1,899, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Tim Luetchford:
1,564, level confidence: 65%.