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Paul Reeves v Chris Bartlett (Wed 14 Jun 2017)

Match won by Chris Bartlett. Result: 10-15,15-12,15-9,10-15,10-15.

Starting level for Paul Reeves: 2,166, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Chris Bartlett: 2,186, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Chris Bartlett to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Paul Reeves.

Chris Bartlett won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Bartlett played 10% better than Paul Reeves in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Bartlett actually played at a level of 2,282 and Paul Reeves at a level of 2,075. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Bartlett changes to +3.6% and Paul Reeves changes to -4.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Bartlett becomes +2.4% and for Paul Reeves becomes -2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2017' so the adjustment for Chris Bartlett is +1.6% and for Paul Reeves is -1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Bartlett: 89%, Paul Reeves: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Bartlett: 86%, Paul Reeves: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Reeves: 2,125, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Chris Bartlett: 2,217, level confidence: 86%.