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Chris Bartlett v Jack Ross (Wed 21 Jun 2017)

Match won by Chris Bartlett. Result: 14-16,16-14,15-6,15-10.

Starting level for Chris Bartlett: 2,179, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jack Ross: 3,202, level confidence: 64%.
Jack Ross to win as he is currently playing 47% better than Chris Bartlett.

Chris Bartlett won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Bartlett played 27% better than Jack Ross in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Bartlett actually played at a level of 2,974 and Jack Ross at a level of 2,346. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 36% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Bartlett changes to +22% and Jack Ross changes to -29%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Bartlett becomes +8.8% and for Jack Ross becomes -10%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2017' so the adjustment for Chris Bartlett is +5.7% and for Jack Ross is -6.3%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jack Ross is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Bartlett: 93%, Jack Ross: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Bartlett: 68%, Jack Ross: 59%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Bartlett: 2,300, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Jack Ross: 3,045, level confidence: 59%.