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Rob Heasman v Jay Morris (Thu 22 Jun 2017)

Match won by Jay Morris. Result: 13-11,7-11,6-11,11-6,3-11.

Starting level for Rob Heasman: 2,908, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jay Morris: 3,989, level confidence: 58%.
Jay Morris to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Rob Heasman.

Jay Morris won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jay Morris played 14% better than Rob Heasman in this match.

As Jay Morris has played below his allowed range at 3,499, his level reduction is 5.8% before damping. On the assumption that Jay Morris would normally have been playing at level 3,864 (based on typical behaviour), Rob Heasman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.9% and 6.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jay Morris changes to -4.9% and Rob Heasman changes to +4.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jay Morris becomes -2.5% and for Rob Heasman becomes +2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Berkshire Summer League 2017' so the adjustment for Jay Morris is -1.6% and for Rob Heasman is +1.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jay Morris: 76%, Rob Heasman: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jay Morris: 69%, Rob Heasman: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rob Heasman: 2,952, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Jay Morris: 3,920, level confidence: 69%.