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Rob Heasman v Steve Jackson (Wed 28 Jun 2017)

Match won by Rob Heasman. Result: 15-2,16-14,15-11.

Starting level for Rob Heasman: 3,039, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Steve Jackson: 3,192, level confidence: 65%.
Steve Jackson to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Rob Heasman.

Rob Heasman won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 70% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Heasman played 70% better than Steve Jackson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Heasman actually played at a level of 4,065 and Steve Jackson at a level of 2,386. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Heasman changes to +27% and Steve Jackson changes to -33%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Heasman becomes +9.4% and for Steve Jackson becomes -11%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2017' so the adjustment for Rob Heasman is +6.1% and for Steve Jackson is -6.9%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Steve Jackson is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Heasman: 90%, Steve Jackson: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Heasman: 67%, Steve Jackson: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rob Heasman: 3,219, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Steve Jackson: 3,035, level confidence: 60%.