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Jack Bishop v Rob Heasman (Mon 03 Jul 2017)

Match won by Rob Heasman. Result: 12-15,15-17,15-5,15-12,13-15.

Starting level for Jack Bishop: 1,945, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Rob Heasman: 3,219, level confidence: 66%.
Rob Heasman to win as he is currently playing 66% better than Jack Bishop.

Rob Heasman won 60% of the games and 48% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Heasman played 5% better than Jack Bishop in this match.

As Rob Heasman has played below his allowed range at 2,359, his level reduction is 15% before damping. On the assumption that Rob Heasman would normally have been playing at level 2,994 (based on typical behaviour), Jack Bishop played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Heasman changes to -10.4% and Jack Bishop changes to +16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Heasman becomes -4.4% and for Jack Bishop becomes +7.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2017' so the adjustment for Rob Heasman is -2.8% and for Jack Bishop is +4.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Heasman: 81%, Jack Bishop: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Heasman: 65%, Jack Bishop: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jack Bishop: 2,032, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Rob Heasman: 3,126, level confidence: 65%.