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Spencer Harris v Graham Gordon (Tue 04 Jul 2017)

Match won by Graham Gordon. Result: 11-15,11-15,15-13,5-15.

Starting level for Spencer Harris: 1,904, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Graham Gordon: 1,373, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Spencer Harris to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Graham Gordon.

Graham Gordon won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Graham Gordon played 29% better than Spencer Harris in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Graham Gordon actually played at a level of 1,839 and Spencer Harris at a level of 1,422. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Graham Gordon changes to +21% and Spencer Harris changes to -28%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Graham Gordon becomes +10.1% and for Spencer Harris becomes -11%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2017' so the adjustment for Graham Gordon is +6.6% and for Spencer Harris is -7.2%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Spencer Harris is limited to -5.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Graham Gordon: 90%, Spencer Harris: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Graham Gordon: 67%, Spencer Harris: 58%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Spencer Harris: 1,796, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Graham Gordon: 1,461, level confidence: 67%.