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Rob Heasman v Jim Masters (Thu 06 Jul 2017)

Match won by Rob Heasman. Result: 11-5,10-12,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Rob Heasman: 3,122, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Jim Masters: 2,986, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Rob Heasman to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Jim Masters.

Rob Heasman won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Heasman played 33% better than Jim Masters in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Heasman actually played at a level of 3,517 and Jim Masters at a level of 2,651. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Heasman changes to +12% and Jim Masters changes to -9.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Heasman becomes +5% and for Jim Masters becomes -4.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Berkshire Summer League 2017' so the adjustment for Rob Heasman is +3.3% and for Jim Masters is -2.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Heasman: 80%, Jim Masters: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Heasman: 71%, Jim Masters: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rob Heasman: 3,219, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Jim Masters: 2,902, level confidence: 79%.