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Euan Macfarlane v Mike McElhatton (Thu 13 Jul 2017)

Match won by Euan Macfarlane. Result: 11-15,9-15,15-8,16-14,15-12.

Starting level for Euan Macfarlane: 1,390, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mike McElhatton: 1,892, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Mike McElhatton to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Euan Macfarlane.

Euan Macfarlane won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Euan Macfarlane played 8% better than Mike McElhatton in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Euan Macfarlane actually played at a level of 1,688 and Mike McElhatton at a level of 1,558. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Euan Macfarlane changes to +18% and Mike McElhatton changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Euan Macfarlane becomes +8.9% and for Mike McElhatton becomes -8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2017' so the adjustment for Euan Macfarlane is +5.8% and for Mike McElhatton is -5.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Euan Macfarlane: 90%, Mike McElhatton: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Euan Macfarlane: 74%, Mike McElhatton: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Euan Macfarlane: 1,468, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Mike McElhatton: 1,799, level confidence: 74%.