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Andy England v Rob Heasman (Mon 17 Jul 2017)

Match won by Andy England. Result: 16-14,15-5,15-11.

Starting level for Andy England: 3,289, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Rob Heasman: 3,219, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Andy England to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Rob Heasman.

Andy England won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 53% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy England played 54% better than Rob Heasman in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andy England actually played at a level of 4,036 and Rob Heasman at a level of 2,623. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy England changes to +22% and Rob Heasman changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy England becomes +8% and for Rob Heasman becomes -7.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2017' so the adjustment for Andy England is +5.2% and for Rob Heasman is -4.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy England: 85%, Rob Heasman: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy England: 69%, Rob Heasman: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andy England: 3,454, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Rob Heasman: 3,068, level confidence: 72%.