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Mike McElhatton v Julian Peak (Tue 18 Jul 2017)

Match won by Julian Peak. Result: 10-15,7-15,13-15.

Starting level for Mike McElhatton: 1,802, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Julian Peak: 1,998, level confidence: 70%.
Julian Peak to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Mike McElhatton.

Julian Peak won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Julian Peak played 52% better than Mike McElhatton in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Julian Peak actually played at a level of 2,337 and Mike McElhatton at a level of 1,541. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Julian Peak changes to +16% and Mike McElhatton changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Julian Peak becomes +7.1% and for Mike McElhatton becomes -7.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2017' so the adjustment for Julian Peak is +4.6% and for Mike McElhatton is -4.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Julian Peak: 83%, Mike McElhatton: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Julian Peak: 71%, Mike McElhatton: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike McElhatton: 1,722, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Julian Peak: 2,087, level confidence: 71%.