Phil Rushmere v Chris Bartlett (Tue 18 Jul 2017)
Match won by Chris Bartlett. Result: 15-17,12-15,7-15.
Starting level for
Phil Rushmere:
2,152, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Chris Bartlett:
2,348, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Chris Bartlett to win as he is currently playing
9% better than Phil Rushmere.
Chris Bartlett won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Bartlett played
44% better than Phil Rushmere in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Bartlett actually played at a level of
2,695 and Phil Rushmere at a level of
1,875. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Bartlett changes to +14% and Phil Rushmere changes to -12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Bartlett becomes +6.1% and for Phil Rushmere becomes -5.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2017' so the adjustment for Chris Bartlett is +3.9% and for Phil Rushmere is -3.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Bartlett: 85%, Phil Rushmere: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Bartlett: 74%, Phil Rushmere: 79%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Phil Rushmere:
2,074, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Chris Bartlett:
2,437, level confidence: 74%.