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Jamie Waters v Rob Heasman (Thu 20 Jul 2017)

Match won by Jamie Waters. Result: 11-8,11-7,11-8.

Starting level for Jamie Waters: 4,944, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Rob Heasman: 3,075, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Jamie Waters to win as he is currently playing 61% better than Rob Heasman.

Jamie Waters won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jamie Waters played 47% better than Rob Heasman in this match.

In this case, Jamie Waters played at level 4,580 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Jamie Waters would normally have been playing at level 4,632 (based on typical behaviour), Rob Heasman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jamie Waters changes to 0% and Rob Heasman changes to +0.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jamie Waters becomes 0% and for Rob Heasman becomes +0.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Berkshire Summer League 2017' so the adjustment for Jamie Waters is 0% and for Rob Heasman is +0.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jamie Waters: 80%, Rob Heasman: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jamie Waters: 77%, Rob Heasman: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jamie Waters: 4,937, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Rob Heasman: 3,081, level confidence: 81%.