Mike McElhatton v Chris Hodgson (Tue 25 Jul 2017)
Match won by Chris Hodgson. Result: 14-16,17-15,5-15,7-15.
Starting level for
Mike McElhatton:
1,719, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Chris Hodgson:
2,225, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Chris Hodgson to win as he is currently playing
29% better than Mike McElhatton.
Chris Hodgson won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Hodgson played
31% better than Mike McElhatton in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Hodgson actually played at a level of
2,235 and Mike McElhatton at a level of
1,712. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.4% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 0.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Hodgson changes to +0.3% and Mike McElhatton changes to -0.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Hodgson becomes +0.2% and for Mike McElhatton becomes -0.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2017' so the adjustment for Chris Hodgson is 0% and for Mike McElhatton is 0%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Hodgson: 90%, Mike McElhatton: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Hodgson: 89%, Mike McElhatton: 84%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mike McElhatton:
1,713, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Chris Hodgson:
2,225, level confidence: 89%.