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Harry Gildersleve v Rob Heasman (Wed 26 Jul 2017)

Match won by Harry Gildersleve. Result: 13-15,15-5,15-3,16-14.

Starting level for Harry Gildersleve: 3,442, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Rob Heasman: 3,081, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Harry Gildersleve to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Rob Heasman.

Harry Gildersleve won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 59% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Gildersleve played 36% better than Rob Heasman in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry Gildersleve actually played at a level of 3,803 and Rob Heasman at a level of 2,789. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Gildersleve changes to +9.9% and Rob Heasman changes to -9.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Gildersleve becomes +4.1% and for Rob Heasman becomes -4.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2017' so the adjustment for Harry Gildersleve is +2.7% and for Rob Heasman is -2.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Gildersleve: 89%, Rob Heasman: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Gildersleve: 80%, Rob Heasman: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harry Gildersleve: 3,528, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Rob Heasman: 2,994, level confidence: 80%.