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Rob Heasman v Guy Tarring (Thu 03 Aug 2017)

Match won by Rob Heasman. Result: 11-2,11-5,11-5.

Starting level for Rob Heasman: 2,994, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Guy Tarring: 1,086, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Rob Heasman to win as he is currently playing 176% better than Guy Tarring.

Rob Heasman won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Heasman played 175% better than Guy Tarring in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Rob Heasman was taking it easy by anything up to 22%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,686 and 2,994 without affecting his level.

In this case, Rob Heasman played at level 2,987 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Guy Tarring is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Heasman: 88%, Guy Tarring: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Heasman: 88%, Guy Tarring: 86%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rob Heasman: 3,001, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Guy Tarring: 1,089, level confidence: 86%.