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Bryn Taylor v Mike McElhatton (Mon 07 Aug 2017)

Match won by Bryn Taylor. Result: 8-15,15-8,9-15,15-7,15-8.

Starting level for Bryn Taylor: 1,795, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Mike McElhatton: 1,703, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Bryn Taylor to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Mike McElhatton.

Bryn Taylor won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Bryn Taylor played 12% better than Mike McElhatton in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Bryn Taylor actually played at a level of 1,848 and Mike McElhatton at a level of 1,654. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Bryn Taylor changes to +2.9% and Mike McElhatton changes to -2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Bryn Taylor becomes +2.3% and for Mike McElhatton becomes -1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2017' so the adjustment for Bryn Taylor is +1.5% and for Mike McElhatton is -1.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Bryn Taylor: 78%, Mike McElhatton: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Bryn Taylor: 76%, Mike McElhatton: 90%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Bryn Taylor: 1,826, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Mike McElhatton: 1,689, level confidence: 90%.