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Kristian Frost Pedersen v Chris Bartlett (Mon 07 Aug 2017)

Match won by Kristian Frost Pedersen. Result: 15-10,15-9,17-15.

Starting level for Kristian Frost Pedersen: 2,499, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Chris Bartlett: 2,433, level confidence: 68%.
Kristian Frost Pedersen to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Chris Bartlett.

Kristian Frost Pedersen won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kristian Frost Pedersen played 44% better than Chris Bartlett in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Kristian Frost Pedersen actually played at a level of 2,957 and Chris Bartlett at a level of 2,056. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Kristian Frost Pedersen changes to +18% and Chris Bartlett changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Kristian Frost Pedersen becomes +7.2% and for Chris Bartlett becomes -7.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2017' so the adjustment for Kristian Frost Pedersen is +4.7% and for Chris Bartlett is -4.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kristian Frost Pedersen: 82%, Chris Bartlett: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kristian Frost Pedersen: 69%, Chris Bartlett: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Kristian Frost Pedersen: 2,623, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Chris Bartlett: 2,332, level confidence: 70%.