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David Morrison v Rob Heasman (Thu 17 Aug 2017)

Match won by Rob Heasman. Result: 7-11,4-11,1-11.

Starting level for David Morrison: 2,621, level confidence: 43%.
Starting level for Rob Heasman: 3,189, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Rob Heasman to win as he is currently playing 22% better than David Morrison.

Rob Heasman won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Heasman played 175% better than David Morrison in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Heasman actually played at a level of 4,794 and David Morrison at a level of 1,743. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 50% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Heasman changes to +24% and David Morrison changes to -45%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Heasman becomes +8.4% and for David Morrison becomes -15%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Berkshire Summer League 2017' so the adjustment for Rob Heasman is +5.5% and for David Morrison is -9.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Heasman: 89%, David Morrison: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Heasman: 59%, David Morrison: 43%.

A final adjustment of +2.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Morrison: 2,513, level confidence: 43%.
Final level for Rob Heasman: 3,372, level confidence: 59%.