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Stuart Parfett v Rob Heasman (Thu 14 Sep 2017)

Match won by Stuart Parfett. Result: 11-5,11-9,11-5.

Starting level for Stuart Parfett: 4,526, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Rob Heasman: 3,280, level confidence: 64%.
Stuart Parfett to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Rob Heasman.

Stuart Parfett won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Parfett played 74% better than Rob Heasman in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Parfett actually played at a level of 5,078 and Rob Heasman at a level of 2,924. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.3% and 10.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Parfett changes to +10.3% and Rob Heasman changes to -9.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Parfett becomes +3.9% and for Rob Heasman becomes -4.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Berkshire Winter League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Stuart Parfett is +2.9% and for Rob Heasman is -3.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Parfett: 78%, Rob Heasman: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Parfett: 69%, Rob Heasman: 71%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stuart Parfett: 4,671, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Rob Heasman: 3,190, level confidence: 71%.