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Elliot Lee v Nigel Birch (Sat 16 Sep 2017)

Match won by Nigel Birch. Result: 11-15,15-8,15-17,12-15.

Starting level for Elliot Lee: 1,146, level confidence: 40%.
Starting level for Nigel Birch: 1,535, level confidence: 37%.
Nigel Birch to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Elliot Lee.

Nigel Birch won 75% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nigel Birch played 18% better than Elliot Lee in this match.

As Nigel Birch has played below his allowed range at 1,397, his level reduction is 3.3% before damping. On the assumption that Nigel Birch would normally have been playing at level 1,493 (based on typical behaviour), Elliot Lee played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.8% and 4.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nigel Birch changes to -2.8% and Elliot Lee changes to +4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nigel Birch becomes -2.4% and for Elliot Lee becomes +3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vets Winter 2017/18' so the adjustment for Nigel Birch is -1.8% and for Elliot Lee is +2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nigel Birch: 61%, Elliot Lee: 63%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nigel Birch: 57%, Elliot Lee: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Elliot Lee: 1,173, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Nigel Birch: 1,506, level confidence: 57%.