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Stuart Webster v Spencer Harris (Sat 16 Sep 2017)

Match won by Stuart Webster. Result: 11-4,11-5,11-7.

Starting level for Stuart Webster: 1,985, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Spencer Harris: 1,792, level confidence: 57%.
Stuart Webster to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Spencer Harris.

Stuart Webster won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Webster played 106% better than Spencer Harris in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Webster actually played at a level of 2,709 and Spencer Harris at a level of 1,313. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 36% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Webster changes to +29% and Spencer Harris changes to -34%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Webster becomes +11.4% and for Spencer Harris becomes -14%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vets Winter 2017/18' so the adjustment for Stuart Webster is +8.6% and for Spencer Harris is -10.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Webster: 83%, Spencer Harris: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Webster: 61%, Spencer Harris: 56%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stuart Webster: 2,152, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Spencer Harris: 1,627, level confidence: 56%.