Paul Downman v Elliot Lee (Sat 30 Sep 2017)
Match won by Paul Downman. Result: 8-15,15-9,17-15,15-9.
Starting level for
Paul Downman:
1,728, level confidence: 45%.
Starting level for
Elliot Lee:
1,172, level confidence: 56%.
Paul Downman to win as he is currently playing
47% better than Elliot Lee.
Paul Downman won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Downman played
22% better than Elliot Lee in this match.
As Paul Downman has played below his allowed range at 1,490, his level reduction is 4.6% before damping. On the assumption that Paul Downman would normally have been playing at level 1,651 (based on typical behaviour), Elliot Lee played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.6%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.8% and 6.2% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Downman changes to -3.8% and Elliot Lee changes to +5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Downman becomes -2.8% and for Elliot Lee becomes +3.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vets Winter 2017/18' so the adjustment for Paul Downman is -2.1% and for Elliot Lee is +2.8%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Downman: 67%, Elliot Lee: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Downman: 61%, Elliot Lee: 68%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Paul Downman:
1,691, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Elliot Lee:
1,203, level confidence: 68%.