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Bill Lovesey v Alvern McCrow (Sat 07 Oct 2017)

Match won by Bill Lovesey. Result: 15-13,15-11,12-15,15-8.

Starting level for Bill Lovesey: 459, level confidence: 31%.
Starting level for Alvern McCrow: 644, level confidence: 24%.
Alvern McCrow to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Bill Lovesey.

Bill Lovesey won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Bill Lovesey played 24% better than Alvern McCrow in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Bill Lovesey actually played at a level of 605 and Alvern McCrow at a level of 489. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Bill Lovesey changes to +20% and Alvern McCrow changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Bill Lovesey becomes +11.4% and for Alvern McCrow becomes -14%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vets Winter 2017/18' so the adjustment for Bill Lovesey is +8.5% and for Alvern McCrow is -10.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Bill Lovesey: 56%, Alvern McCrow: 49%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Bill Lovesey: 42%, Alvern McCrow: 37%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Bill Lovesey: 497, level confidence: 42%.
Final level for Alvern McCrow: 585, level confidence: 37%.