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George Horton v Chris Bartlett (Mon 09 Oct 2017)

Match won by George Horton. Result: 13-15,15-7,15-13,15-10.

Starting level for George Horton: 2,333, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for Chris Bartlett: 2,264, level confidence: 59%.
George Horton to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Chris Bartlett.

George Horton won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that George Horton played 26% better than Chris Bartlett in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like George Horton actually played at a level of 2,583 and Chris Bartlett at a level of 2,045. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for George Horton changes to +10.5% and Chris Bartlett changes to -9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for George Horton becomes +4.9% and for Chris Bartlett becomes -4.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2017/18' so the adjustment for George Horton is +3.6% and for Chris Bartlett is -3.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. George Horton: 72%, Chris Bartlett: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. George Horton: 65%, Chris Bartlett: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for George Horton: 2,424, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Chris Bartlett: 2,224, level confidence: 70%.