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Roni Duarte v Harry Leitch (Tue 10 Oct 2017)

Match won by Harry Leitch. Result: 2-11,5-11,3-11.

Starting level for Roni Duarte: 10,174, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for Harry Leitch: 10,154, level confidence: 38%.
Roni Duarte to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Harry Leitch.

Harry Leitch won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Leitch played 230% better than Roni Duarte in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry Leitch actually played at a level of 18,464 and Roni Duarte at a level of 5,595. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 82% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Leitch changes to +82% and Roni Duarte changes to -54%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Leitch becomes +16.9% and for Roni Duarte becomes -12%.

Given Harry Leitch's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 18% has been applied to his level change.

Given Roni Duarte's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 18% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Harry Leitch is +10.8% and for Roni Duarte is -7.4%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Harry Leitch is limited to +8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Leitch: 61%, Roni Duarte: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Leitch: 34%, Roni Duarte: 38%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Roni Duarte: 9,495, level confidence: 38%.
Final level for Harry Leitch: 10,989, level confidence: 34%.