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Mike McElhatton v Mark Cullington (Tue 10 Oct 2017)

Match won by Mike McElhatton. Result: 15-13,18-16,14-16,13-15,15-13.

Starting level for Mike McElhatton: 1,613, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Mark Cullington: 1,378, level confidence: 23%.
Mike McElhatton to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Mark Cullington.

Mike McElhatton won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike McElhatton played 8% better than Mark Cullington in this match.

As Mike McElhatton has played below his allowed range at 1,539, his level reduction is 3.2% before damping. On the assumption that Mike McElhatton would normally have been playing at level 1,602 (based on typical behaviour), Mark Cullington played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.7%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike McElhatton changes to -0.9% and Mark Cullington changes to +3.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike McElhatton becomes -0.8% and for Mark Cullington becomes +2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Mike McElhatton is -0.6% and for Mark Cullington is +2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike McElhatton: 83%, Mark Cullington: 48%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike McElhatton: 80%, Mark Cullington: 46%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike McElhatton: 1,608, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Mark Cullington: 1,410, level confidence: 46%.