SquashLevels calculations
Rob Heasman v David Morrison (Thu 12 Oct 2017)
Match won by Rob Heasman. Result: 12-10,11-6,6-11,11-0.
Starting level for
Rob Heasman:
3,266, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
David Morrison:
2,457, level confidence: 70%.
Rob Heasman to win as he is currently playing
33% better than David Morrison.
Rob Heasman won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Heasman played
33% better than David Morrison in this match.
In this case, Rob Heasman played at level 3,259 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, David Morrison is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Heasman: 84%, David Morrison: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Heasman: 84%, David Morrison: 83%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Rob Heasman:
3,274, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for David Morrison:
2,463, level confidence: 83%.