Justin Browne v Chris Lucas (Sat 14 Oct 2017)
Match won by Justin Browne. Result: 15-3,15-11,15-13.
Starting level for
Justin Browne:
962, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for
Chris Lucas:
696, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Justin Browne to win as he is currently playing
38% better than Chris Lucas.
Justin Browne won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Justin Browne played
67% better than Chris Lucas in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Justin Browne actually played at a level of
1,056 and Chris Lucas at a level of
634. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.8% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.3% and 8.3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Justin Browne changes to +8.3% and Chris Lucas changes to -5.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Justin Browne becomes +5.6% and for Chris Lucas becomes -4.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vets Winter 2017/18' so the adjustment for Justin Browne is +4.2% and for Chris Lucas is -3.1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Justin Browne: 71%, Chris Lucas: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Justin Browne: 65%, Chris Lucas: 79%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Justin Browne:
1,001, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Chris Lucas:
674, level confidence: 79%.