Noel Laycock v Nick Marsh (Sat 14 Oct 2017)
Match won by Noel Laycock. Result: 17-15,15-8,14-16,15-12.
Starting level for
Noel Laycock:
1,926, level confidence: 36%.
Starting level for
Nick Marsh:
1,080, level confidence: 51%.
Noel Laycock to win as he is currently playing
78% better than Nick Marsh.
Noel Laycock won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Noel Laycock played
23% better than Nick Marsh in this match.
As Noel Laycock has played below his allowed range at 1,442, his level reduction is 8.3% before damping. On the assumption that Noel Laycock would normally have been playing at level 1,755 (based on typical behaviour), Nick Marsh played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.2% and 10.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Noel Laycock changes to -6.2% and Nick Marsh changes to +7.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Noel Laycock becomes -3.6% and for Nick Marsh becomes +5.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vets Winter 2017/18' so the adjustment for Noel Laycock is -2.7% and for Nick Marsh is +3.9%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Noel Laycock: 60%, Nick Marsh: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Noel Laycock: 50%, Nick Marsh: 59%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Noel Laycock:
1,873, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Nick Marsh:
1,120, level confidence: 59%.