Jo Robinson v Andrew Bidnell (Sat 28 Oct 2017)
Match won by Jo Robinson. Result: 15-13,15-13,15-4.
Starting level for
Jo Robinson:
982, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for
Andrew Bidnell:
979, level confidence: 10%.
Jo Robinson to win as she is currently playing
0% better than Andrew Bidnell.
Jo Robinson won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jo Robinson played
52% better than Andrew Bidnell in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jo Robinson actually played at a level of
1,207 and Andrew Bidnell at a level of
796. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jo Robinson changes to +3.5% and Andrew Bidnell changes to -23%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jo Robinson becomes +3.2% and for Andrew Bidnell becomes -13%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vets Winter 2017/18' so the adjustment for Jo Robinson is +2.4% and for Andrew Bidnell is -9.1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jo Robinson: 81%, Andrew Bidnell: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jo Robinson: 66%, Andrew Bidnell: 26%.
A final adjustment of +2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Jo Robinson:
1,004, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Andrew Bidnell:
936, level confidence: 26%.