Paul Garbutt v Alan Hyde (Sat 28 Oct 2017)
Match won by Paul Garbutt. Result: 12-15,15-7,12-15,15-8,15-13.
Starting level for
Paul Garbutt:
2,164, level confidence: 25%.
Starting level for
Alan Hyde:
1,559, level confidence: 70%.
Paul Garbutt to win as he is currently playing
39% better than Alan Hyde.
Paul Garbutt won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Garbutt played
12% better than Alan Hyde in this match.
As Paul Garbutt has played below his allowed range at 1,881, his level reduction is 7.5% before damping. On the assumption that Paul Garbutt would normally have been playing at level 2,092 (based on typical behaviour), Alan Hyde played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.3%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.3% and 7.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Garbutt changes to -6.3% and Alan Hyde changes to +2.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Garbutt becomes -3.5% and for Alan Hyde becomes +2.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Intercounty Masters 2017/18' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Garbutt: 50%, Alan Hyde: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Garbutt: 45%, Alan Hyde: 75%.
Final level for Paul Garbutt:
2,091, level confidence: 45%.
Final level for Alan Hyde:
1,596, level confidence: 75%.