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Paul Garbutt v Alan Hyde (Sat 28 Oct 2017)

Match won by Paul Garbutt. Result: 12-15,15-7,12-15,15-8,15-13.

Starting level for Paul Garbutt: 2,164, level confidence: 25%.
Starting level for Alan Hyde: 1,559, level confidence: 70%.
Paul Garbutt to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Alan Hyde.

Paul Garbutt won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Garbutt played 12% better than Alan Hyde in this match.

As Paul Garbutt has played below his allowed range at 1,881, his level reduction is 7.5% before damping. On the assumption that Paul Garbutt would normally have been playing at level 2,092 (based on typical behaviour), Alan Hyde played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.3% and 7.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Garbutt changes to -6.3% and Alan Hyde changes to +2.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Garbutt becomes -3.5% and for Alan Hyde becomes +2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Intercounty Masters 2017/18' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Garbutt: 50%, Alan Hyde: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Garbutt: 45%, Alan Hyde: 75%.

Final level for Paul Garbutt: 2,091, level confidence: 45%.
Final level for Alan Hyde: 1,596, level confidence: 75%.