SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Jayden Gough v Harry Leitch (Tue 31 Oct 2017)

Match won by Harry Leitch. Result: 3-11,9-11,5-11.

Starting level for Jayden Gough: 7,463, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Harry Leitch: 10,862, level confidence: 50%.
Harry Leitch to win as he is currently playing 46% better than Jayden Gough.

Harry Leitch won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Leitch played 94% better than Jayden Gough in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry Leitch actually played at a level of 12,544 and Jayden Gough at a level of 6,462. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Leitch changes to +13% and Jayden Gough changes to -8.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Leitch becomes +3.7% and for Jayden Gough becomes -3%.

Given Harry Leitch's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 20% has been applied to his level change.

Given Jayden Gough's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.4% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Harry Leitch is +2.3% and for Jayden Gough is -2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Leitch: 71%, Jayden Gough: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Leitch: 61%, Jayden Gough: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jayden Gough: 7,316, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Harry Leitch: 11,119, level confidence: 61%.