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Paul Garbutt v Patrick Fleming (Fri 03 Nov 2017)

Match won by Paul Garbutt. Result: 15-12,15-10,15-11.

Starting level for Paul Garbutt: 2,167, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Patrick Fleming: 1,269, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Paul Garbutt to win as he is currently playing 71% better than Patrick Fleming.

Paul Garbutt won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Garbutt played 43% better than Patrick Fleming in this match.

In this case, Paul Garbutt played at level 1,901 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Paul Garbutt would normally have been playing at level 1,999 (based on typical behaviour), Patrick Fleming played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Garbutt changes to 0% and Patrick Fleming changes to +3.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Garbutt becomes 0% and for Patrick Fleming becomes +2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vintage Winter 2017/18' so the adjustment for Paul Garbutt is 0% and for Patrick Fleming is +2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Garbutt: 77%, Patrick Fleming: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Garbutt: 71%, Patrick Fleming: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Garbutt: 2,164, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Patrick Fleming: 1,294, level confidence: 78%.