Raymond Illingworth v Rob Corlett (Sat 04 Nov 2017)
Match won by Rob Corlett. Result: 13-15,11-15,11-15.
Starting level for
Raymond Illingworth:
892, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Rob Corlett:
741, level confidence: 25%.
Raymond Illingworth to win as he is currently playing
20% better than Rob Corlett.
Rob Corlett won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Corlett played
37% better than Raymond Illingworth in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Corlett actually played at a level of
953 and Raymond Illingworth at a level of
694. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Corlett changes to +26% and Raymond Illingworth changes to -8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Corlett becomes +13.8% and for Raymond Illingworth becomes -5.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vets Winter 2017/18' so the adjustment for Rob Corlett is +10.3% and for Raymond Illingworth is -4.1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Corlett: 50%, Raymond Illingworth: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Corlett: 39%, Raymond Illingworth: 65%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Raymond Illingworth:
856, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Rob Corlett:
814, level confidence: 39%.