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Zeb Young v Harry Leitch (Thu 09 Nov 2017)

Match won by Harry Leitch. Result: 11-7,8-11,6-11,6-11.

Starting level for Zeb Young: 7,460, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Harry Leitch: 11,343, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Harry Leitch to win as he is currently playing 52% better than Zeb Young.

Harry Leitch won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Leitch played 26% better than Zeb Young in this match.

As Harry Leitch has played below his allowed range at 9,747, his level reduction is 3.4% before damping. On the assumption that Harry Leitch would normally have been playing at level 10,764 (based on typical behaviour), Zeb Young played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.8% and 5.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Leitch changes to -2.8% and Zeb Young changes to +5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Leitch becomes -1.3% and for Zeb Young becomes +2.1%.

Given Harry Leitch's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change.

Given Zeb Young's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.4% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Harry Leitch is -0.8% and for Zeb Young is +1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Leitch: 87%, Zeb Young: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Leitch: 79%, Zeb Young: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Zeb Young: 7,562, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Harry Leitch: 11,241, level confidence: 79%.