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David Parker v Paul Garbutt (Fri 10 Nov 2017)

Match won by Paul Garbutt. Result: 5-15,9-15,13-15.

Starting level for David Parker: 1,349, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Garbutt: 2,167, level confidence: 69%.
Paul Garbutt to win as he is currently playing 61% better than David Parker.

Paul Garbutt won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Garbutt played 67% better than David Parker in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Garbutt actually played at a level of 2,207 and David Parker at a level of 1,324. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.5% and 1.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Garbutt changes to +1.5% and David Parker changes to -1.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Garbutt becomes +1.1% and for David Parker becomes -1.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vintage Winter 2017/18' so the adjustment for Paul Garbutt is +0.8% and for David Parker is -0.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Garbutt: 83%, David Parker: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Garbutt: 81%, David Parker: 87%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Parker: 1,336, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Paul Garbutt: 2,182, level confidence: 81%.