Jamie Goodrich v Harry Leitch (Sun 05 Nov 2017)
Match won by Harry Leitch. Result: 11-7,2-11,12-10,2-11,9-11.
Starting level for
Jamie Goodrich:
8,241, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Harry Leitch:
11,115, level confidence: 60%.
Harry Leitch to win as he is currently playing
35% better than Jamie Goodrich.
Harry Leitch won 60% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 39% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Leitch played
17% better than Jamie Goodrich in this match.
As Harry Leitch has played below his allowed range at 9,981, his level reduction is 3.3% before damping. On the assumption that Harry Leitch would normally have been playing at level 10,799 (based on typical behaviour), Jamie Goodrich played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.7%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.8% and 4.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Leitch changes to -2.8% and Jamie Goodrich changes to +3.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Leitch becomes -1.4% and for Jamie Goodrich becomes +1.7%.
Given Harry Leitch's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 272% has been applied to his level change.
Given Jamie Goodrich's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 199% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Harry Leitch is 0% and for Jamie Goodrich is 0%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Leitch: 78%, Jamie Goodrich: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Leitch: 72%, Jamie Goodrich: 85%.
Final level for Jamie Goodrich:
8,260, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Harry Leitch:
11,099, level confidence: 72%.