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Harry Leitch v Joseph Green (Mon 16 Oct 2017)

Match won by Joseph Green. Result: 7-11,9-11,5-11.

Starting level for Harry Leitch: 10,986, level confidence: 33%.
Starting level for Joseph Green: 14,968, level confidence: 68%.
Joseph Green to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Harry Leitch.

Joseph Green won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joseph Green played 56% better than Harry Leitch in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joseph Green actually played at a level of 16,039 and Harry Leitch at a level of 10,253. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.2% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.1% and 6.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joseph Green changes to +2.9% and Harry Leitch changes to -6.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joseph Green becomes +1.3% and for Harry Leitch becomes -2.2%.

Given Joseph Green's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 29% has been applied to his level change.

Given Harry Leitch's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 20% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Joseph Green is +0.8% and for Harry Leitch is -1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joseph Green: 82%, Harry Leitch: 57%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joseph Green: 77%, Harry Leitch: 54%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harry Leitch: 10,864, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Joseph Green: 15,122, level confidence: 77%.