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Harry Leitch v Seigo Masuda (Mon 13 Nov 2017)

Match won by Harry Leitch. Result: 11-6,12-10,11-5.

Starting level for Harry Leitch: 11,235, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Seigo Masuda: 7,902, level confidence: 69%.
Harry Leitch to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Seigo Masuda.

Harry Leitch won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 62% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Leitch played 62% better than Seigo Masuda in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry Leitch actually played at a level of 11,989 and Seigo Masuda at a level of 7,405. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.7% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.6% and 5.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Leitch changes to +4.9% and Seigo Masuda changes to -5.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Leitch becomes +1.9% and for Seigo Masuda becomes -2.3%.

Given Harry Leitch's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change.

Given Seigo Masuda's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.9% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Harry Leitch is +1.2% and for Seigo Masuda is -1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Leitch: 88%, Seigo Masuda: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Leitch: 83%, Seigo Masuda: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harry Leitch: 11,361, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Seigo Masuda: 7,778, level confidence: 78%.