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Eleanor Howarth v George Gervasio (Sun 26 Nov 2017)

Match won by George Gervasio. Result: 4-11,14-12,7-11,8-11.

Starting level for Eleanor Howarth: 461, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for George Gervasio: 2,589, level confidence: 12%.
George Gervasio to win as she is currently playing 462% better than Eleanor Howarth.

George Gervasio won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that George Gervasio played 29% better than Eleanor Howarth in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that George Gervasio was taking it easy by anything up to 46%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 640 and 2,589 without affecting her level.

As George Gervasio has played below her allowed range at 617, her level reduction is 3.9% before damping. On the assumption that George Gervasio would normally have been playing at level 1,410 (based on typical behaviour), Eleanor Howarth played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 54%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.6% and 20% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for George Gervasio changes to -1.6% and Eleanor Howarth changes to +3.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for George Gervasio becomes -1.1% and for Eleanor Howarth becomes +3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 70% for 'Surrey Junior League 2017/18' so the adjustment for George Gervasio is -0.8% and for Eleanor Howarth is +2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. George Gervasio: 35%, Eleanor Howarth: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. George Gervasio: 17%, Eleanor Howarth: 38%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Eleanor Howarth: 473, level confidence: 38%.
Final level for George Gervasio: 2,575, level confidence: 17%.