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Fraser Pennells v Harry Lipscomb (Sun 26 Nov 2017)

Match won by Harry Lipscomb. Result: 12-10,9-11,6-11,9-11.

Starting level for Fraser Pennells: 47, level confidence: 10%.
Starting level for Harry Lipscomb: 54, level confidence: 41%.
Harry Lipscomb to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Fraser Pennells.

Harry Lipscomb won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Lipscomb played 23% better than Fraser Pennells in this match.

Special case for levels < 100 as these are often players who are new to the game and getting better fast. Levels can change quickly for these players and a default level increase of 1 has been added to both players for playing another match.

Without any limiting, both players would need to be adjusted by 4%. The level change for Harry Lipscomb has not been limited and has increased to 57. The level change for Fraser Pennells has not been limited and has decreased to 46.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Lipscomb: 55%, Fraser Pennells: 22%.
Reduce level confidence based on how much adjustment is needed. Harry Lipscomb: 54%, Fraser Pennells: 21%.

Final level for Fraser Pennells: 46, level confidence: 21%.
Final level for Harry Lipscomb: 57, level confidence: 54%.